Hall School Building Committee

1. Hall School Building Committee Meeting 4/1/2015 Agenda Documents: HALLBC_AGENDA040115.PDF 2. March 4, 2015 Meeting Minutes Documents: MEETING MINUTES 03042015.PDF 3. Student Population Projections Draft Report Documents: 2014 DRAFT REPORT 03172015.PDF 4. Portland Public Schools Enrollment By School 1999 - 2014 Documents: PPS OCT 1 ENROLLMENTS BY SCHOOL 1999-2014.PDF  HALL SCHOOL BUILDING COMMITTEE Date: Wednesday, April 1, 2015 Time: 6:00pm Location: Hall School Library AGENDA 1. Approve minutes from March 4, 2015 meeting 2. Review updated demographic information presented to Portland Board of Public Education on March 17, 2015 3. Update on the timeline 4. Overview of Buildings for Our Future concept plans Oak Point Project #21402.18 Building Committee MEETING MINUTES - No. 002 Meeting: Hall School Building Committee Date: March 4, 2015 Time: 6:00 PM Location: Hall School Library, Portland, ME Project: Hall Elementary School Notes and observations were made by Allison Towne DiMatteo The following is a summary of the issues discussed in the order presented: Meeting Agenda: Copy of agenda attached Action/Date Item Item Responsible Party No. Attendees List of Attendees at end of Minutes Meeting Minutes The meeting minutes from January 7, 2015 were brought forward. • Motion to approve the meeting minutes from January 7, 2015. Seconded. (Approved unanimously.) New Business (ARL@portlandmaine.gov) 1. Any building committee member who wishes not to have his/her telephone number or e-mail published should alert Anita LaChance. 2. Rob Tillotson (Oak Point Associates) gave a brief recap of the Public Forum held on February 4, 2015. 3. Allison DiMatteo and Tyler Barter (Oak Point Associates) gave an overview of the draft enrollment projections developed by Davis Demographics & Planning (DDP). PPS will provide data on 4. Discussion of the draft enrollment projections immigrant population to generated the following questions/requests: Oak Point Associates. • The DDP projections should be compared Meeting Minutes Page 1 of 3 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 231 Main Street, Biddeford, Maine 04005 TEL 207.283.0193 FAX 207.283.4283 www.oakpoint.com  Action/Date Item Item Responsible Party No. against past enrollment projections to see how well they align. • How does the apparent increase in the immigrant population factor into the enrollment projections? • Because of the PPS policy on out of neighborhood placement in elementary schools, the transfer matrix is important to consider. • What is the effect of PPS’ shift of Libbytown neighborhood students to Hall School? • Oak Point should obtain a proposal from Planning Decisions for enrollment projections (a second opinion). • The assumptions on future residential development should be checked. Portland Board of 5. Overview by Rob Tillotson of the State of Maine Education (School Board) Department of Education’s 21-step review and to review the regional data approval process chart for Major Capital School and advise on a direction Construction, and the overall need to evaluate for the project. (M/S/A) regional solutions within the district as part of the process. Discussion: Oak Point to attend • Hall School Building Committee is not the School Board meeting to group to take up the question of a regional provide background on solution. enrollment projections and • Possibility of a combined solution with state process. Longfellow School 6. The Hall School Building Committee should continue to move ahead to the degree possible while the regional discussion is being conducted by the Board of Education. 7. Motion for meeting to adjourn. (M/S/A) END OF MEETING MINUTES The above items are true to the best of the writer’s knowledge. If there are any errors or omissions, please notify Allison Towne DiMatteo of Oak Point Associates, at the next scheduled meeting. If no corrections or additions are noted at that time, these minutes will become a permanent record of the preceding. If corrections or additions are made, these changes will be noted in the minutes of the next scheduled meeting. Meeting Minutes Page 2 of 3 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 231 Main Street, Biddeford, Maine 04005 TEL 207.283.0193 FAX 207.283.4283 www.oakpoint.com Meeting Attendees: Name Representing Mark B. Adelson Building Committee, Portland Housing Authority James Banks Sr. Building Committee Emmanuel Caulk Superintendent, Portland Public Schools Joe Carter Building Committee Laurie J. Davis, Vice Chair Building Committee, School Board Member Bob Doherty Building Committee Dick Farnsworth Building Committee Sean Kelsey Building Committee Anita Lachance City of Portland Katie Lamb Building Committee Whitney Letellier Building Committee Nick Mavodones Building Committee, City Councilor Marnie Morrione Building Committee, School Board Member Laura Newman Building Committee Pedro Nieves Building Committee Cynthia Remick Hall School Principal Karen A. Seymour City of Portland Douglas Ritter Sherwood Portland Public Schools Ed Suslovic, Chair Building Committee, City Councilor Sarah Thompson Building Committee, School Board Member Craig Worth Portland Public Schools Tyler Barter Oak Point Associates Allison Towne DiMatteo Oak Point Associates Rob Tillotson Oak Point Associates Meeting Minutes Page 3 of 3 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 231 Main Street, Biddeford, Maine 04005 TEL 207.283.0193 FAX 207.283.4283 www.oakpoint.com  Portland Public Schools Portland, Maine Student Population Projections By Residence Draft Fall 2014/2015 Report Fall 2015/16 – Fall 2021/22 Projected Student Population by Residence Prepared by March 17, 2015 Portland Public Schools Draft 2014/15 Projection Report Overall Methodology After all the data is assembled and the factors are calculated, the number of students by residence is a forecast based on the chosen date of projection, in this case Decenber 23, 2014 was utilized. Student population within each study area is then calculated in the following order: 1. First, the natural progression of students moving through the grades. 2. After the raw, straight-through projections are applied, BIRTH FACTORS are then multiplied to the current kindergarten class to generate a base for the following year’s kindergarten class. 2. Next, STUDENT YIELD FACTORS are multiplied by the PROJECTION HOUSING UNITS. At the time of this report, there are no residential development projects proposed or under construction. 3. The MOBILITY FACTORS are applied which take into account the natural in/out migration of students throughout the DISTRICT. (Factors are calculated for each grade to better account for fluctuations in enrollment such as the possible increase in students between 8th and 9th grades.) March 17, 2015 Davis Demographics & Planning, Inc. Page 1 Portland Public Schools Draft 2014/15 Projection Report Projections by Residence Incoming Kindergarten The Maine State Department of Health reports live birth data by the resident city of the mother. DDP uses the birth data city correlating to the District boundary and applies the data accordingly. Chart 1– Birth and K Class Student Mobility Factors Student mobility factors further refine the seven-year student population projections. Mobility refers to the increase/decrease in the migration of students within the District boundary (move-in/move-out of students from existing housing). Mobility, similar to a cohort, applied as a percentage of increase/decrease to each grade for every year of the projections. A net increase or decrease of zero students over time is represented by a factor of 1.000 A net student loss is represented by a factor less than 1.000 and a net gain by a factor greater than 1.000 (see example). Example: 100 Kindergarten students in fall 2014/15 X .980 (East End 1st grade mobility) = 98.0 1st grade students residing in East End in 2015/16 March 17, 2015 Davis Demographics & Planning, Inc. Page 2 Portland Public Schools Draft 2014/15 Projection Report Having historical student data categorized by Study Area is extremely helpful in calculating accurate Student Mobility Factors. DDP was able to utilize the last four (4) years (Fall 2011/12, 2012/13, 2013/14, and 2014/15) student data. The 2011/12 student data was compared to 2012/13, 2012/13 to 2013/14, and 2013/14 to this year’s student data at the Study area level. Grades K-12 Mobility was all calculated to correspond with the Elementary School Attendance Areas. Table 1– Mobility Factors by Residence Residential Development Planned residential development data is collected to determine the number of new residential units that will be built over the ten-year time frame of the student population projections. The projected units within the next ten years will have the appropriate Student Yield Factor, Table 3, applied to them to determine the number of new students planned residential development will yield. A database map of the planned residential development was created, including, when available, project name, location, housing type, total number of units and estimated move-in dates (phasing schedule). Projected phasing is based upon occupancy of the unit and is used to help time the arrival of students from these new developments. In the student population projection by residence DDP includes all approved and tentative tract maps in addition to any planned or proposed development that possibly will occur within the projection timeframe. The planned residential development information and phasing estimates is a snapshot of the District at the time of this study. All of the information may change and should be updated annually (see Table 2). March 17, 2015 Davis Demographics & Planning, Inc. Page 3  Portland Public Schools Draft 2014/15 Projection Report Residential Development in Portland Study Area Project Developer Location Total Units Status Comments 256 409 Cumberland Avesta Housing 409 Cumberland Ave 57 Active 01/15/2015 completion 1/2015 243 Bayside Anchor Avesta Housing Oxford and Mayo 45 Active 01/15/15 complete 1 1/2 yrs 6/2016 21 Maritime Landing The Federated Equities Chestnut St and Somerset St. 500 Planning Still in planning phase Table 2– Residential Development Note: The development list includes projects that occupancy will begin in the 7-year period of the enrollment projections. Some future projects may not be included if they do not fall in this period. Total Units reflect the number of approved units for the project not the remaining units to be built. Student Yield Factors – 7-Year Projections Closely related to the planned residential development units are Student Yield Factors. The Student Yield Factors, when applied to planned residential development units, determine how many additional students will be generated from new construction within the District. Table 3 – Student Yield Factors *Note: Student Yield Factors supplied by District staff.. March 17, 2015 Davis Demographics & Planning, Inc. Page 4 Portland Public Schools Draft 2014/15 Projection Report DISTRICT-WIDE SUMMARY Projection Date 1/23/2015 Actual Projected Resident Students Fall 2014/15 Fall 2015/16 Fall 2016/17 Fall 2017/18 Fall 2018/19 Fall 2019/20 Fall 2020/21 Fall 2021/22 PK 102 104.7 94.2 99.0 95.5 98.3 98.3 98.3 K 549 563.6 506.8 532.8 514.2 529.0 529.0 529.0 1 562 550.4 564.8 507.3 533.3 514.6 529.5 529.5 2 552 550.0 536.5 549.9 493.9 519.2 501.0 515.5 3 495 544.4 542.8 528.8 542.0 486.7 511.8 493.8 4 537 484.6 532.6 531.6 516.8 529.6 475.6 500.1 5 510 525.2 473.6 519.5 519.1 504.8 517.3 464.6 6 492 496.8 511.9 460.8 504.4 505.3 489.8 502.0 7 482 495.7 501.2 515.4 465.2 509.7 509.1 494.9 8 490 481.6 495.3 499.3 512.9 464.0 506.7 506.9 9 516 493.0 485.2 498.3 502.0 515.5 467.9 512.2 10 498 539.8 515.4 507.5 520.3 525.0 538.8 487.9 11 535 507.1 549.8 523.6 515.3 528.2 532.7 548.2 12 557 555.5 527.3 572.9 542.7 534.1 548.3 553.8 K-5 3,205 3,218.2 3,157.1 3,169.9 3,119.3 3,083.9 3,064.2 3,032.5 6-8 1,464 1,474.1 1,508.4 1,475.5 1,482.5 1,479.0 1,505.6 1,503.8 9-12 2,106 2,095.4 2,077.7 2,102.3 2,080.3 2,102.8 2,087.7 2,102.1 K-12 6,775 6,787.7 6,743.2 6,747.7 6,682.1 6,665.7 6,657.5 6,638.4 Out of District Students K-5 24 24.1 23.6 23.7 23.4 23.1 22.9 22.7 6-8 22 22.2 22.7 22.2 22.3 22.2 22.6 22.6 9-12 56 55.7 55.2 55.9 55.3 55.9 55.5 55.9 K-12 102 102.0 101.6 101.8 101.0 101.2 101.1 101.2 UnmatchedsStudents K-5 6 6.0 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.7 6-8 1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 9-12 1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 K-12 8 8.0 7.9 7.9 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.7 District Total Enrollment K-5 3,235 3,248.3 3,186.7 3,199.6 3,148.5 3,112.8 3,092.9 3,060.9 6-8 1,487 1,497.3 1,532.1 1,498.7 1,505.8 1,502.2 1,529.3 1,527.4 9-12 2,163 2,152.1 2,133.9 2,159.2 2,136.6 2,159.7 2,144.2 2,159.0 PK-12 6,987 7,002 6,947 6,956 6,886 6,873 6,865 6,846 Change in Enrollment K-5 13.3 -61.7 12.9 -51.1 -35.7 -19.9 -51.9 6-8 10.3 34.8 -33.4 7.1 -3.6 27.0 25.2 9-12 -10.9 -18.2 25.3 -22.6 23.1 -15.5 -0.7 PK-12 15.4 -55.6 9.6 -70.0 -13.4 -8.4 -27.4 March 17, 2015 Davis Demographics & Planning, Inc. Page 4 Portland Public Schools Draft 2014/15 Projection Report March 17, 2015 Davis Demographics & Planning, Inc. Page 5 Portland Public Schools Draft 2014/15 Projection Report Individual School Projections by Residence Attendance Area East End Community School Projection Date 1/22/2015 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 K 66.0 67.7 61.5 64.3 62.1 63.9 63.9 63.9 1 63.0 64.7 67.0 60.3 63.0 60.8 62.6 62.6 2 68.0 59.9 62.1 63.6 57.2 59.9 57.8 59.5 3 56.0 61.9 55.1 56.5 57.9 52.1 54.5 52.6 4 57.0 55.4 61.9 54.5 56.0 57.3 51.6 54.0 5 65.0 51.9 51.1 56.4 49.6 50.9 52.2 46.9 K‐5 375.0 361.5 358.7 355.6 345.8 344.9 342.6 339.5 Attendance Area Hall ES Projection Date 1/22/2015 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 K 59.0 60.5 54.3 57.2 55.2 56.8 56.8 56.8 1 76.0 58.4 59.9 53.8 56.6 54.6 56.2 56.2 2 52.0 73.0 56.1 57.5 51.6 54.3 52.4 53.9 3 67.0 51.5 72.2 55.5 56.9 51.1 53.8 51.9 4 62.0 65.0 49.9 70.1 53.8 55.2 49.6 52.2 5 65.0 60.1 63.0 48.4 68.0 52.2 53.5 48.1 K‐5 381.0 368.5 355.4 342.5 342.1 324.2 322.3 319.1 Attendance Area Longfellow ES Projection Date 1/22/2015 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 K 53.0 54.3 48.8 51.4 49.6 51.0 51.0 51.0 1 47.0 55.6 57.0 51.3 53.9 52.0 53.5 53.5 2 61.0 43.7 51.8 53.0 47.7 50.2 48.4 49.8 3 38.0 56.1 40.2 47.6 48.8 43.9 46.1 44.5 4 53.0 36.1 53.3 38.2 45.2 46.4 41.7 43.8 5 47.0 48.8 33.2 49.0 35.1 41.6 42.7 38.3 K‐5 299.0 294.6 284.3 290.5 280.3 285.1 283.4 280.9 Attendance Area Lyseth ES Projection Date 1/22/2015 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 K 70.0 71.8 64.5 67.8 65.5 67.3 67.3 67.3 1 97.0 72.8 74.6 67.0 70.5 68.1 70.0 70.0 2 77.0 98.0 73.5 75.4 67.7 71.2 68.7 70.7 3 66.0 77.0 98.0 73.5 75.4 67.7 71.2 68.7 4 79.0 66.7 77.8 98.9 74.3 76.1 68.4 72.0 5 82.0 77.4 65.3 76.2 97.0 72.8 74.6 67.0 K‐5 471.0 463.7 453.7 458.8 450.4 423.2 420.2 415.7 Does not include unmatched students or students residing outside of the P.P.S. boundaries March 17, 2015 Davis Demographics & Planning, Inc. Page 6 Portland Public Schools Draft 2014/15 Projection Report Individual School Projections by Residence Attendance Area Ocean Ave ES Projection Date 1/22/2015 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 K 89.0 92.1 82.4 86.7 83.7 86.1 86.1 86.1 1 81.0 94.4 96.7 86.6 91.1 87.9 90.4 90.4 2 95.0 79.4 91.5 93.8 84.0 88.3 85.2 87.7 3 83.0 99.7 82.6 95.2 97.6 87.3 91.9 88.6 4 76.0 84.7 100.7 83.4 96.2 98.5 88.2 92.8 5 78.0 76.1 83.9 99.7 82.6 95.2 97.6 87.3 K‐5 502.0 526.4 537.8 545.4 535.2 543.3 539.4 532.9 Attendance Area Peaks Island School Projection Date 1/22/2015 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 K 8.0 8.2 7.4 7.8 7.5 7.7 7.7 7.7 1 3.0 8.0 8.2 7.4 7.8 7.5 7.7 7.7 2 12.0 2.9 7.8 8.0 7.1 7.5 7.3 7.5 3 11.0 12.4 3.0 8.0 8.2 7.4 7.7 7.5 4 13.0 9.7 10.9 2.6 7.0 7.2 6.5 6.8 5 8.0 13.5 10.1 11.3 2.7 7.3 7.5 6.7 K‐5 55.0 54.7 47.4 45.1 40.3 44.6 44.4 43.9 Attendance Area Presumpscot ES Projection Date 1/22/2015 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 K 57.0 58.4 52.5 55.2 53.3 54.8 54.8 54.8 1 47.0 54.7 56.1 50.4 53.0 51.2 52.6 52.6 2 43.0 46.1 53.6 55.0 49.4 52.0 50.1 51.6 3 38.0 42.1 45.1 52.6 53.9 48.4 50.9 49.1 4 61.0 36.1 40.0 42.9 49.9 51.2 46.0 48.4 5 55.0 61.6 36.5 40.4 43.3 50.4 51.7 46.4 K‐5 301.0 299.0 283.8 296.5 302.8 308.0 306.1 302.9 Attendance Area Reiche Community School Projection Date 1/22/2015 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 K 76.0 77.9 70.0 73.6 71.1 73.1 73.1 73.1 1 70.0 72.2 74.0 66.5 70.0 67.5 69.5 69.5 2 67.0 63.7 65.7 67.3 60.5 63.7 61.4 63.2 3 50.0 69.0 65.6 67.7 69.4 62.3 65.6 63.3 4 57.0 47.5 65.6 62.3 64.3 65.9 59.2 62.3 5 46.0 57.6 48.0 66.2 63.0 64.9 66.6 59.8 K‐5 366.0 387.9 388.9 403.6 398.3 397.4 395.4 391.2 Does not include unmatched students or students residing outside of the P.P.S. boundaries March 17, 2015 Davis Demographics & Planning, Inc. Page 7 Portland Public Schools Draft 2014/15 Projection Report Individual School Projections by Residence Attendance Area Riverton ES Projection Date 1/22/2015 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 K 71.0 72.8 65.4 68.8 66.4 68.3 68.3 68.3 1 78.0 69.6 71.3 64.1 67.4 65.1 66.9 66.9 2 77.0 83.5 74.5 76.3 68.6 72.1 69.6 71.6 3 86.0 74.7 81.0 72.2 74.0 66.5 70.0 67.5 4 79.0 83.4 72.4 78.5 70.1 71.8 64.5 67.9 5 64.0 78.2 82.6 71.7 77.7 69.4 71.1 63.9 K‐5 455.0 462.2 447.2 431.6 424.2 413.2 410.4 406.1 Does not include unmatched students or students residing outside of the P.P.S. boundaries March 17, 2015 Davis Demographics & Planning, Inc. Page 8 Portland Public Schools Draft 2014/15 Projection Report Individual School Projections by Residence Attendance Area King MS Projection Date 1/22/2015 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 K 191.0 196.7 177.1 185.9 179.4 184.6 184.6 184.6 1 180.0 190.6 196.0 175.9 184.6 178.2 183.3 183.3 2 177.0 170.4 180.4 184.8 165.8 174.1 168.0 172.8 3 154.0 179.2 172.2 181.9 186.4 167.2 175.6 169.5 4 149.0 152.0 176.7 168.7 178.6 183.0 164.1 172.4 5 157.0 147.2 149.4 173.3 165.6 175.4 179.8 161.2 6 123.0 149.6 140.2 142.0 164.1 157.2 166.3 170.4 7 142.0 126.3 154.0 142.8 144.5 167.9 159.8 170.0 8 134.0 142.1 125.9 152.4 140.7 143.2 165.4 157.8 K‐5 1,008.0 1,036.1 1,051.8 1,070.5 1,060.4 1,062.5 1,055.4 1,043.8 6‐8 399.0 418.0 420.1 437.2 449.3 468.3 491.5 498.2 Attendance Area Lincoln MS Projection Date 1/22/2015 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 K 157.0 160.9 144.6 152.1 146.8 151.0 151.0 151.0 1 174.0 158.0 162.0 145.5 153.1 147.7 152.0 152.0 2 176.0 173.1 156.4 160.3 144.0 151.5 146.2 150.4 3 157.0 168.6 166.9 150.0 153.7 138.1 145.3 140.2 4 172.0 151.5 162.4 161.1 144.5 148.1 133.1 140.0 5 159.0 165.5 146.6 156.2 155.7 139.1 142.6 128.1 6 171.0 155.4 161.9 143.7 152.7 152.5 136.0 139.4 7 149.0 167.9 153.0 159.7 142.1 150.6 150.7 134.2 8 152.0 151.4 170.8 155.7 162.4 144.7 153.1 153.5 K‐5 995.0 977.6 938.9 925.2 897.8 875.5 870.2 861.7 6‐8 472.0 474.7 485.7 459.1 457.2 447.8 439.8 427.1 Attendance Area Moore MS Projection Date 1/22/2015 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 K 193.0 197.8 177.8 187.0 180.5 185.7 185.7 185.7 1 205.0 193.8 198.7 178.5 187.8 181.2 186.4 186.4 2 187.0 203.6 192.0 196.8 176.9 186.1 179.5 184.7 3 173.0 184.2 200.8 188.9 193.6 174.0 183.1 176.6 4 203.0 171.3 182.6 199.1 186.6 191.3 171.9 180.8 5 186.0 199.0 167.6 178.6 195.0 182.9 187.5 168.5 6 190.0 183.1 195.4 164.4 175.5 192.7 179.6 184.1 7 178.0 193.2 185.4 198.0 167.5 178.7 195.6 182.6 8 196.0 175.9 191.0 182.9 195.8 165.8 176.6 192.8 K‐5 1,147.0 1,149.7 1,119.5 1,128.9 1,120.4 1,101.2 1,094.1 1,082.7 6‐8 564.0 552.2 571.8 545.3 538.8 537.2 551.8 559.5 Does not include unmatched students or students residing outside of the P.P.S. boundaries March 17, 2015 Davis Demographics & Planning, Inc. Page 9 Portland Public Schools Draft 2014/15 Projection Report Individual School Projections by Residence Attendance Area Peaks Island School Projection Date 1/22/2015 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 K 8.0 8.2 7.4 7.8 7.5 7.7 7.7 7.7 1 3.0 8.0 8.2 7.4 7.8 7.5 7.7 7.7 2 12.0 2.9 7.8 8.0 7.1 7.5 7.3 7.5 3 11.0 12.4 3.0 8.0 8.2 7.4 7.7 7.5 4 13.0 9.7 10.9 2.6 7.0 7.2 6.5 6.8 5 8.0 13.5 10.1 11.3 2.7 7.3 7.5 6.7 6 8.0 8.6 14.5 10.8 12.1 2.9 7.8 8.0 7 13.0 8.2 8.8 14.9 11.1 12.5 3.0 8.1 8 8.0 12.1 7.7 8.2 13.9 10.3 11.6 2.8 K‐5 55.0 54.7 47.4 45.1 40.3 44.6 44.4 43.9 6‐8 29.0 28.9 31.0 33.9 37.1 25.7 22.4 18.9 Does not include unmatched students or students residing outside of the P.P.S. boundaries March 17, 2015 Davis Demographics & Planning, Inc. Page 10 Portland Public Schools Draft 2014/15 Projection Report Individual School Projections by Residence Attendance Area Deering HS Projection Date 1/22/2015 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 K 237.0 242.9 218.3 229.7 221.6 228.0 228.0 228.0 1 267.0 240.4 246.4 221.4 233.0 224.8 231.3 231.3 2 263.0 265.2 238.1 244.1 219.3 230.8 222.7 229.1 3 242.0 257.1 259.8 232.5 238.3 214.1 225.3 217.4 4 254.0 236.4 251.6 254.2 227.1 232.8 209.2 220.1 5 247.0 246.2 230.0 243.9 247.1 220.2 225.7 202.8 6 242.0 241.8 240.8 225.1 238.7 242.8 215.9 221.3 7 227.0 241.9 242.9 242.0 226.5 240.7 243.6 216.8 8 235.0 229.6 244.9 245.2 244.5 229.4 242.5 245.9 9 264.0 236.0 231.5 246.0 245.4 245.7 230.3 243.3 10 259.0 272.5 243.7 240.0 254.2 254.0 254.9 237.9 11 250.0 264.0 278.4 248.1 244.4 258.5 258.8 259.6 12 263.0 255.7 272.0 288.4 255.1 251.3 265.3 266.8 K‐5 1,510.0 1,488.2 1,444.2 1,425.8 1,386.4 1,350.7 1,342.2 1,328.7 6‐8 704.0 713.3 728.6 712.3 709.7 712.9 702.0 684.0 9‐12 1,036.0 1,028.2 1,025.6 1,022.5 999.1 1,009.5 1,009.3 1,007.6 Attendance Area Portland HS Projection Date 1/22/2015 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 K 304.0 312.5 281.2 295.4 285.1 293.3 293.3 293.3 1 292.0 302.0 310.2 278.5 292.6 282.4 290.5 290.5 2 277.0 281.9 290.6 297.8 267.4 280.9 271.1 278.9 3 242.0 274.9 280.0 288.3 295.5 265.2 278.7 269.0 4 270.0 238.5 270.2 274.7 282.6 289.6 260.0 273.2 5 255.0 265.5 233.6 264.3 269.2 277.2 284.1 255.0 6 242.0 246.4 256.6 224.9 253.6 259.6 266.1 272.7 7 242.0 245.5 249.5 258.4 227.6 256.5 262.5 270.0 8 247.0 239.9 242.7 245.9 254.5 224.4 252.6 258.2 9 243.0 249.7 242.8 245.3 249.1 257.2 228.2 258.3 10 232.0 258.8 264.8 257.1 259.5 263.9 272.0 241.1 11 281.0 235.2 261.7 267.7 259.0 262.1 265.8 274.9 12 285.0 296.1 247.9 275.6 280.3 271.8 276.0 279.6 K‐5 1,640.0 1,675.3 1,665.8 1,699.0 1,692.4 1,688.6 1,677.7 1,659.9 6‐8 731.0 731.8 748.8 729.2 735.7 740.5 781.2 800.9 9‐12 1,041.0 1,039.8 1,017.2 1,045.7 1,047.9 1,055.0 1,042.0 1,053.9 K‐12 3,412.0 3,446.9 3,431.8 3,473.9 3,476.0 3,484.1 3,500.9 3,514.7 Does not include unmatched students or students residing outside of the P.P.S. boundaries March 17, 2015 Davis Demographics & Planning, Inc. Page 11 Portland Public Schools Draft 2014/15 Projection Report Individual School Projections by Residence Attendance Area Peaks Island School Projection Date 1/22/2015 ACTUAL PROJECTED RESIDENT STUDENTS 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 K 8.0 8.2 7.4 7.8 7.5 7.7 7.7 7.7 1 3.0 8.0 8.2 7.4 7.8 7.5 7.7 7.7 2 12.0 2.9 7.8 8.0 7.1 7.5 7.3 7.5 3 11.0 12.4 3.0 8.0 8.2 7.4 7.7 7.5 4 13.0 9.7 10.9 2.6 7.0 7.2 6.5 6.8 5 8.0 13.5 10.1 11.3 2.7 7.3 7.5 6.7 6 8.0 8.6 14.5 10.8 12.1 2.9 7.8 8.0 7 13.0 8.2 8.8 14.9 11.1 12.5 3.0 8.1 8 8.0 12.1 7.7 8.2 13.9 10.3 11.6 2.8 9 9.0 7.3 11.0 7.0 7.5 12.6 9.4 10.6 10 7.0 8.6 6.9 10.5 6.6 7.1 12.0 8.9 11 4.0 8.0 9.7 7.9 11.9 7.6 8.1 13.7 12 9.0 3.7 7.3 9.0 7.3 11.0 6.9 7.4 K‐5 55.0 54.7 47.4 45.1 40.3 44.6 44.4 43.9 6‐8 29.0 28.9 31.0 33.9 37.1 25.7 22.4 18.9 9‐12 29.0 27.6 34.9 34.4 33.3 38.3 36.4 40.6 Does not include unmatched students or students residing outside of the P.P.S. boundaries March 17, 2015 Davis Demographics & Planning, Inc. Page 12 Portland Public Schools Draft 2014/15 Projection Report Attendance Matrices Three attendance matrices have been included to provide a better understanding of where students reside and where they attend school. Remember, DDP projections are based upon where the students reside, not where they attend school. DDP uses the actual location of where the students reside, as opposed to their school of enrollment, in order to provide the most accurate prediction of future facilities adjustments. Therefore, since the projections are based upon where the students reside, the figures used as a base for each school's resident projection may differ from the actual reported enrollment for each school. These attendance matrices act as a check and balance for student accounting. They show where the students reside (in what School of Residence) based upon our address matching capabilities and what school they attend (School of Attendance) based upon data in the student file supplied by the District. The inclusion of these matrices is essential to showing how the students used in the projections match up to the District’s records of enrollment for each school. The best way to plan for future facilities changes is to know where the next group of students will be residing, not necessarily which school they are currently attending. READING THE MATRIX Looking at the K-5 Elementary School Attendance Matrix below, let us begin with East End as an example. Following down the first column with the East End heading, there are 358 K-5 grade students who attend East End and reside in the East End attendance area. Continuing downward, nine students attend East End that resides in the Hall attendance area. Next, the matrix shows that four students attend East End and reside in the Longfellow’s attendance area, and so on. The row Out of District refers to students who live completely outside of the Portland Public Schools, but attend one of the District's schools. There is one Out of District students attending East End. Total Attendance shows the total number of students attending a school regardless of where they reside, and reflects the District’s enrollment counts for each school. There are 410 students attending East End. The next step is to read across the matrix, beginning with the East End attendance area row. We understand that the 358 represents the total number of K-5 grade students that reside in the East End attendance area and attend East End. The next column, Hall, refers to the number of K-5 grade students that reside in the East End attendance area, but attend Hall. Two students reside in the East End attendance area and attend Hall. The Total Residence column is the total number of students living in each particular attendance area. There are 399 K-5 students residing in the East End attendance March 17, 2015 Davis Demographics & Planning, Inc. Page 13 Portland Public Schools Draft 2014/15 Projection Report area. The Total Attendance row is the actual number of students used as the base or actual number for each attendance area in the Fall 2012/13 projections March 17, 2015 Davis Demographics & Planning, Inc. Page 14  Portland Public Schools Draft 2014/15 Projection Report School of Attendance E a s t E nd C o m m unit y H a ll E S Lo ngf e llo w E S Lys e t h E S Ocean A ve ES P e a k s Is la nd E S P re s um ps c o t E S R e ic he C o m m unit y R iv e rt o n E S C lif f Is la nd R e s ide nc e % A t t e nding E a s t E nd C o m m unit y 358 0 0 1 2 0 1 4 9 0 375 95% H a ll E S 5 352 16 2 0 0 0 2 4 0 381 92% School of Residence Lo ngf e llo w E S 1 8 280 1 7 0 1 1 0 0 299 94% Lys e t h E S 2 2 5 445 6 0 6 0 5 0 471 94% Ocean A ve ES 27 28 19 1 394 0 1 25 7 0 502 78% P e a k s Is la nd E S 0 0 0 0 0 50 0 2 0 3 55 91% P re s um ps c o t E S 5 7 5 12 1 0 268 0 3 0 301 89% R e ic he C o m m unit y 3 4 3 3 4 0 0 341 8 0 366 93% R iv e rt o n E S 6 20 11 12 5 0 4 1 396 0 455 87% O ut o f D is t ric t 1 1 1 9 1 2 0 6 3 0 24 Unm a t c he d 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 5 0 0 6 T o t a l A t t e nda nc e 408 422 340 486 421 52 281 387 435 3 3,235 Total 2014/15 K-5 Transfer Students 50 70 60 41 27 2 13 46 39 3 351 % o f To tal 12% 17% 18% 8% 6% 4% 5% 12% 9% 100% 11% School of Attendance King M S * Linc o ln M S M o o re M S R e s ide nc e % A t t e nding King M S * 377 14 8 399 94% Linc o ln M S 28 427 17 472 90% School of Residence M o o re M S 54 46 464 564 82% O ut o f D is t ric t 13 3 6 22 Unm a t c he d 1 0 0 1 T o t a l A t t e nda nc e 473 490 495 1,458 Total 2014/15 6-8 Transfer Students 96 63 31 190 % o f To tal 20% 13% 6% 13% *D o e s no t inc lude 2 9 s t ude nt s liv ing in t he Is la nds a t t e nding King M S School of Attendance D e e ring H S P o rt la nd H S C asco B ay H S R e s ide nc e % A t t e nding D e e ring H S 543 309 184 1,036 52% P o rt la nd H S 366 508 167 1,041 49% School of Residence O ut o f D is t ric t 26 21 9 56 Unm a t c he d 1 0 0 1 T o t a l A t t e nda nc e 936 838 360 2,134 Total 2014/15 9-12 Transfer Students 393 330 360 1,083 % o f To tal 42% 39% 100% 51% *D o e s no t inc lude 2 9 s t ude nt s liv ing in t he Is la nds a t t e nding P o rt la nd H S ( 2 1) a nd C a s c o B a y H S ( 8 ) March 17, 2015 Davis Demographics & Planning, Inc. Page 15  Enrollment Comparisons (October 1 enrollments) ELEMENTARY 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Jack 262 244 286 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Peaks Island 61 48 46 49 48 54 48 48 49 48 52 57 64 62 53 52 Adams/East End (2006) 113 98 102 189 186 147 144 441 426 424 399 451 437 412 415 423 Hall 433 445 456 457 432 442 445 471 471 448 463 457 450 441 453 435 Lyseth 670 628 584 571 565 547 541 544 533 529 493 505 515 524 517 492 Longfellow 362 335 342 333 357 341 347 345 337 371 398 395 391 385 377 346 Presumpscot 252 243 234 214 253 241 257 241 253 271 260 291 273 283 281 297 Baxter 199 151 167 130 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cliff Island 7 8 6 10 8 6 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 Riverton 464 482 451 451 469 481 470 434 427 446 459 464 401 427 454 466 Reiche 499 521 446 499 520 489 456 310 337 317 308 336 334 369 366 400 Clifford/Ocean (2011) 280 205 216 308 303 299 321 263 278 284 309 314 431 449 442 421 West/Bayside Lng Commun 10 12 20 15 15 21 16 19 13 0 8 Total Elementary 3,602 3,408 3,336 3,211 3,151 3,059 3,056 3,118 3,132 3,165 3,162 3,275 3,300 3,356 3,362 3,336 MIDDLE SCHOOLS King 593 578 529 502 508 512 480 501 498 488 539 546 545 534 538 508 Lincoln 630 602 623 618 595 590 520 449 448 468 472 441 472 473 482 498 Moore 729 694 699 660 643 644 596 550 524 542 549 531 508 484 497 495 West 23 14 15 12 12 12 11 5 0 4 Total Middle School 1,952 1,874 1,851 1,780 1,746 1,769 1,610 1,515 1,482 1,510 1,572 1,518 1,525 1,491 1,517 1,501 HIGH SCHOOLS Portland 1,063 1085 1,136 1,143 1,227 1,191 1,107 1,085 1,009 909 907 1,011 938 921 877 882 Deering 1,252 1348 1,375 1,354 1,375 1,325 1,326 1,249 1,228 1,158 1,067 1,032 962 960 943 951 Casco Bay 82 169 186 231 247 276 276 279 335 368 West 12 17 16 24 16 18 10 10 0 15 Total High School 2,315 2,433 2,511 2,497 2,602 2,528 2,532 2,519 2,447 2,314 2,221 2,319 2,176 2,160 2,155 2,201 Pre-K 46 70 83 77 96 West 45 49 45 55 40 28 0 0 27 TOTAL SCHOOL ENROLLMENT 7,914 7,764 7,743 7,543 7,499 7,356 7,198 7,152 7,061 6,989 6,955 7,112 7,001 7,007 7,034 7,038 Change -150 -21 -200 -44 -143 -158 -46 -91 -50 -34 157 -111 6 27 4 Percent change -1.90% -0.27% -2.58% -0.58% -1.91% -2.15% -0.64% -1.27% -0.60% -0.49% 2.26% -1.56% 0.09% 0.39% 0.06% 10/16/2003 3/7/2008 11/16/2009 12/12/2011 12/11/2012 11/7/2013 9/24/2014